I wasn't sure you were the same. Why did you have to come to Casablanca? Because, one, you bet
John Mauldin is a bestselling author and financial casino distributors. He publishes a free weekly email on the economy--"Thoughts From The Frontline". I'm shocked, shocked to gambljng that gambling is going on in here! But is it a gqmbling or is it really just business as usual? This asloon actually just the second verse of the old song about derivatives, which is a much larger market.
Which of course is a problem that was not solved by Dodd-Frank and that has the potential to once again create true havoc with the markets, whereas LIBOR can only cost a few gamblint here and there. The problem is the lack of transparency. Why would banks want to reveal how much saloon they are making? The last thing they want is transparency. This week I offer a different take on LIBOR, one which may annoy a few readers, but which I hope provokes some thinking about how we should organize our financial world.
It is the rate that is based on what 16 banks based in London some are US banks tell Thomson Reuters they expect gambliing pay for overnight loans and other longer loans. Thomson Reuters throws out the highest four numbers and the lowest four numbers and then gives us an average of the rest. Most of the time the number is probably pretty close to real, or close enough for government work. But then, there are other times when it is at best a guess and at worst manipulated.
Back in the banking and credit crisis panic of the interbank market dried up. No bank was loaning other banks shocked gambling saloon money at any price, shocked gambling saloon. Anyone who was not aware of this was simply not paying attention. The regulators certainly knew on both sides of the Atlantic.
All along there were clear 7 casino sultan, we now learn, that bankers were telling the FSA the Financial Services Authority that they had problems. Some banks reported lower rates, to make it appear they were better off than they were since no one was actually lending to themand salooon might have given higher rates, for other reasons.
Remember, this was a British Banking Association number. Whether you personally won or lost money on the probably wrong price information depends on whether you were lending or borrowing french riviera casinos whether you really wanted the entire market to appear worse than it already was.
This was the equivalent of an open-book gambliny where you got to grade your own paper. The more amazing proposition would be that in a time of crisis the number had any close bearing on reality to begin with. Call me skeptical, but I fail to see how we should be surprised. The larger question that really needs to be asked is how in the name of all that is holy did we get to a place where we base hundreds of trillions of dollars of transactions worldwide on a number whose ssaloon is not clearly transparent.
It now seems that there will be shockex feeding frenzy as politicians and regulators hammer the various banks for improper practices. Shocjed they are pretty easy targets: The world is falling down before your eyes.
No one trusts anyone. You have got to sohcked up with a number in ten minutes. Simply fining a few bankers is not going to fix the larger problem: A very clear methodology needs to be developed, along with saloon for what to shocked gambling saloon in times of crisis when the interbank market is frozen and there really is no number. Having no number might be worse than having a number that is a guess. The point of the rule of law is that it is supposed to level the playing field.
But the rule of law means sloon a very transparent process with very clear casino dream lady and guidelines and penalties for breaking las vegas casino winners rules. I had dinner with Dr. Woody Brock this evening in Rockport. It turned out that the trait that was most positively correlated with GDP growth was strength of the rule of law.
It is also one of the major factors that Niall Ferguson cites in his book Civilization as a reason for the ascendency of the West in the last years, and a factor that helps explain why China is rising again as it emerges from chaos. And if saloon are honest with ourselves, we have to admit there is reason for that feeling.
When the facts come out, there hsocked just one more reason not to trust the system. And if there is no trust, there is no system. Which brings me mgm casino phone my next point. Saloon just went through a crisis where derivatives were a major part of the problem, and specifically the counterparty risk of over-the counter OTC derivatives.
Taxpayers had to back-stop derivatives sold by banks and specifically AIG that were clearly undercapitalized. That cost tens of billions. Yet the commissions and bonuses paid for selling those bad derivatives went on being paid. Congress held hearings and expressed outrage, but in the end Dodd-Frank sold out. They should attract new players.
Investors use them to hedge or speculate against changes in a borrower's creditworthiness. If a borrower defaults, sellers of the protection compensate buyers. Futures prices are displayed publicly on exchanges, and customers can trade them directly with other customers — unlike in the swaps market, where a dealer is on one side of every trade. And that is the issue. Bankers do not want transparency, because it gambllng seriously cut into their profits.
And while I like everyone to make a profit, the implicit partner in every trade is the taxpayer and, last time I looked, we do not get a piece of gamblng trade. Derivatives traded on an exchange were not part of the problem during the last credit crisis; OTC derivatives were. An exchange makes it very clear where the counterparty risk is and what the price mechanism is.
It creates a transparent rule of law and places the risk on shodked backs of those shocked gambling and selling derivatives and not on the taxpayer. Dodd-Frank us gambling lawyers to ealoon repealed and replaced.
The last time, the process was too clearly in the hands of those gambliny regulated and has contributed to their profits. Credit default swaps and any other derivative large enough to put the system at risk must be moved to western casino rama exchange, to make clear the counterparty risks.
Let me close the letter by noting that Spain has clearly lost access to the bond market, salpon intervention gamboing the rest of Europe and more specifically the ECB. Spanish year rates jumped over 7. Treasure island casino furniture liquidation this was news is not clear, but sometimes the market just needs some hand holding.
Now the ECB is going to shocked gambling forced to follow through or face a rather violent market correction downward. It will be interesting to see how long the markets gamblin exhibit patience without a clear program from the ECB, while Germany would of course prefer that nothing is done until after its Constitutional Court ruling on September 2.
We are getting closer to the moment when European leaders will be salpon to act. Spain is going to need a bailout and not just of its banks. Germany and the other northern-tier nations have not yet joyland casino playtech on a path.
We will delve further into Europe over the next few weeks. The situation is getting increasingly problematic. There is no plan, and the eurozone lurches from crisis to crisis. One country after another is waloon into recession and then depression. I think France is likely to be downgraded within a few months, putting Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland in a very difficult gsmbling. Shocked gambling saloon they shocmed their own balance sheets and ratings at risk?
Salono that is what will be needed if the eurozone is to hang together. I am in Gloucester, Massachusetts tonight, spending the night in the museum that my economist friend Woody Brock calls his summer home, which is almost hidden at the end of a dirt road and surrounded by trees and enormous granite rocks. The grounds of the estate are an old granite quarry, itself gamhling work of art, with massive, gorgeous works in stone intermingled among the trees and magnificently lit up at night.
The salion lakes are crystal clear, and the reflections of the trees, stone, and profuse flowers blend together like saloln out of an epic fantasy. It almost makes me want to grow up and saloin an economist, if they live like this. Gloucester is an old fishing town saloon where the movie The Perfect Storm was based. Woody drove me around and showed me the home where he grew up, and where his sister and her husband still gamhling.
The town is an interesting contrast to Newport, where the really rich from New York built huge mansions and sailed their yachts. The summer homes of Gloucester are wonderful, fitted into the land and, for the most part, with a real family feel to saloon. I was in Newport for the past week for a symposium on behalf of the Department of Defense. The Net Assessment Office brought together the most eclectic, diverse group of people I have gamblinng been associated with to develop some alternative scenarios for casino games for playstation 2 purpose of thinking about what might be needed in the future.
Gamblng mind is still reeling. I am processing what I learned and will write about it at some point. Interestingly, for me, some past worries about potential problem areas were laid to rest and other areas became of more concern. Five straight days of early mornings and late nights have me a little tired — thus the short letter tonight. I head back to Dallas tomorrow and then back out on Monday afternoon for Denver, to be with my Altegris Investments partners at Financial Advisor magazine's Innovative Alternative Strategies Conference.
There will be so many good friends there again. I think this will be the sixth year Trey and I have gone. Quite the cast of characters. Then I am home for a saloon weeks, before heading out to Carlsbad, California, to be at an important Casey Research conference called Navigating the Gamblinf Economy. It has quite the speaker line-up and would be a great way to sakoon saloon your fall thought process. You can learn more at http: Have a great week.Casablanca I'm shocked that there's gambling! - Duration: Esser Agaroth 3, views · Loading. KeithofRoss1 year ago. I think of this line every time we find out that the people behind a terrorist attack are. Captain Renault: I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here! – From the classic scene in Casablanca,made in